A decade after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an highly split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in universities but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer supports unification or the current situation. Each writes two essays that aim for objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they support unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but each side has has something to gain from the alternative arguments."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must join the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
